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Germany vs Latvia Predictions & Tips - Latvia to keep it closer than the odds suggest

  • Germany vs Latvia predictions for Monday’s international friendly
  • The match is being played at 7.45pm BST at Merkur Spiel-Arena
  • Germany have not won by 4+ goals in their last 12 matches
  • Latvia have not lost by 4+ goals in their last 14 matches
  • I am backing Latvia with the +4 handicap in Düsseldorf
  • Preview, stats, squads & team news
Germany Latvia 2004
Germany's last match against Latvia was in the 2004 Euros (Getty Images)
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Germany vs Latvia Predictions


Germany can’t be trusted to cover a big handicap or keep a clean sheet at the moment. I am backing Latvia with the +4 handicap and BTTS in Düsseldorf.

  • Germany have failed to win in their last 2 matches (all competitions).
  • Germany have not won by 4+ goals in their last 12 matches (all competitions).
  • Germany have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 13 matches (all competitions).
  • Latvia have not lost by 4+ goals in their last 14 matches (all competitions).
  • Latvia are undefeated in 10 of their last 13 matches (all competitions).
  • Latvia have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches (all competitions).

Head to Head


Germany have a 2-0 advantage against Latvia with 1 draw in 3 matches.

They last met in the 2004 European Championship group stage which ended in a 0-0 draw.

Germany Form


Germany have been inconsistent over the last nine months. They have won five of 12 matches in that run which includes a 6-0 thrashing against Spain in the UEFA Nations League.

Joachim Löw’s side started their World Cup qualifying campaign with a 3-0 home win against Iceland with Leon Goretzka, Kai Havertz and Ilkay Gündogan on target.

Die Mannschaft then won 1-0 in Romania with Serge Gnabry scoring the winner. They returned to Germany and lost 2-1 against North Macedonia, conceding in the 85th minute after Ilkay Gündogan equalised from the penalty spot.

Germany’s last match was a 1-1 draw against Denmark in an international friendly. Florian Neuhaus opened the scoring but they couldn’t hold on in Innsbruck.

Germany Squad & Team News


Goalkeepers: Manuel Neuer (captain), Bernd Leno, Kevin Trapp
Defenders: Antonio Rüdiger, Marcel Halstenberg, Matthias Ginter, Mats Hummels, Niklas Süle, Lukas Klostermann, Robin Gosens, Robin Koch, Christian Günter
Midfielders: Joshua Kimmich, Kai Havertz, Toni Kroos, Jonas Hofmann, Jamal Musiala, Florian Neuhaus, Leon Goretzka, Leroy Sané, İlkay Gündoğan, Emre Can, 
Forwards: Kevin Volland, Serge Gnabry, Thomas Müller, Timo Werner

We could see Joachim Löw ring the changes here with Bernd Leno, Robin Koch, Christian Günter, Marcel Halstenberg, Jamal Musiala, Jonas Hofmann and Kevin Volland all hoping to start.

Chelsea’s Antonio Rüdiger, Kai Havertz and Timo Werner should also be options after joining the squad late following their UEFA Champions League victory.

Latvia Form


Latvia are undefeated in 10 of their last 13 matches, but many of those came against the likes of Andorra, Malta and Faroe Islands.

Dainis Kazakevics’ side drew four of their six matches in the UEFA Nations League to finish third in Group 1 in League D.

The 11 Wolves had a poor start to their World Cup qualifying campaign, losing 2-1 against Montenegro and 2-0 in the Netherlands.

Latvia managed to drew 3-3 in Turkey after falling 3-1 behind, goals to Roberts Uldrikis and Davis Ikaunieks earning them a point.

Latvia won 3-1 at home against Lithuania in their last match, their opener in the Baltic Cup. They went ahead through an own goal and saw Eduards Emsis and Roberts Uldrikis score after the visitors had equalised.

Latvia Squad & Team News


Goalkeepers: Roberts Ozols, Krišjānis Zviedris, Rihards Matrevics
Defenders: Vitālijs Maksimenko, Kaspars Dubra, Igors Tarasovs, Roberts Savaļnieks, Mārcis Ošs, Raivis Jurkovskis, Antonijs Černomordijs, Krišs Kārkliņš, Elvis Stuglis, Vladislavs Sorokins
Midfielders: Artūrs Zjuzins, Jānis Ikaunieks, Vladimirs Kamešs, Andrejs Cigaņiks, Vladislavs Fjodorovs, Alvis Jaunzems, Eduards Emsis, Aleksejs Saveljevs, Renārs Varslavāns, Raivis Ķiršs
Forwards: Dāvis Ikaunieks, Vladislavs Gutkovskis, Roberts Uldriķis, Raimonds Krollis

Right-back Alvis Jaunzems picked up an injury against Lithuania and is doubtful.

19-year-old striker Raimonds Krollis came off the bench and assisted Roberts Uldrikis against Lithuania, he could start here.
US

Verdict

Germany are likely to be disjointed with Joachim Löw making plenty of changes to his starting side. I am backing Latvia with the +4 handicap.

Best Bet: Latvia +4 Handicap @120.00 at BetMGM - 3 Units
Value Bet: BTTS Yes BTTS @250.00 at PlaySugarhouse Sport - 2 Units

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07 Jun 2021

Germany v Latvia